Anticipated Crisis and Failed Future of Digitalization
Listening to the Koran telling a new day has just begun, I’m writing this column in Antalya/Turkey. From yesterday, I’ve been attending this year’s B20 meeting, which will be continued today and even jointly held with G20 leaders’ meeting tomorrow. This is a kind of wrap-up sessions, since our B20’s policy recommendations were already handed over to G20 in the last meeting held in September in Ankara. Just to see how B20 will further evolve towards the next year’s Chinese presidency, I come here to watch the scene.
Actually, there is indeed another reason why I come here: As I repeatedly mentioned beforehand, my institute closely collaborate with an alliance partner dedicated to do quantitative analysis. Based on that, my institute then analyses open sources and find out the world’s trends ahead. This kind of unique combination between quantitative and qualitative analysis is what the institute called “IISIA” and my alliance partner, Mr. HKD, have been doing every day.
About one month ago, Mr. HKD indicated the financial market’s trend could be changed a little bit dramatically from 13th to 16th of November. Thanks to the result of his brilliant quantitative analysis, our institute intensively began to find out what would happen during the period. Tentatively, there were two versions of interpretation as follows: First, Mr. HKD’s quantitative analysis pointed out JPY could be appreciated from 13th of November. And from 14th to 15th of November, this year’s G20 summit was to be held here in Antalya. My interpretation was that US would take the opportunity to call on the global community to prepare for its higher interest rate than before. Even though, this would be officially done in the next meeting of FRB/FOMC in mid-December, a prior notice could be given to the rest of the world in order to evade any shocks in the financial market.
As the second version of interpretation, I referred vis-à-vis my clients to the possibility of terrorism with global impacts. That will presumably happen particularly in Europe, since Mr. HKD’s quantitative analysis indicated at first not USD but EUR could be depreciated during the above shown period. Expressis verbis, I pointed out terrorists of the so-called Islamic State (IS), who succeeded to penetrate into the European societies as a part of “Syrian refugees”, would start their offensive in Europe.
As all of you are already informed, dear readers, the latter is the case this time. In Paris, more than one hundred citizens were massacred last night. This is unbelievable, however, wasn’t difficult to be anticipated. Again, thanks to Mr. HKD’s quantitative analysis, my clients were already aware of the possibility of such a massacre in Europe.
Having read articles reported from Paris in the internet, I’m now about to doubt whether our “B20” as such will become worthless after the indiscriminate murder in Paris. The current strategy of B20 process is too simple to change the global community profoundly: Total digitalization would lead to “inclusiveness” that would make all the people happy. In yesterday’s session, the “distinguished” panelists advocated even to accelerate digitalization in LDC where the local people allegedly suffer from lack of information to start business. From my viewpoint, we have to claim quite the opposite: Digitalization divide us into the two groups. The one consists of those who are somehow capable of adapting themselves to the accelerated world, while another fails to do so. The richer the former becomes, the bigger the latter’s antagonism grows. Total digitalization never makes all of us happy. Never ever. It just brings about a series of political turmoil even with act of violence such as terrorism we just saw in Paris last night.
Another way of both thinking and doing is urgently needed, which can be unfortunately not discussed by the western dominated meetings and conferences like B20. China will be fully involved in the old-fashioned B20 process next year and not be able to get rid of total digitalization and its tragic end. Maybe, reluctant participation of Japanese members in B20 process shows their potential to do something new for the world. “Total analogization” will be then the key to the future. Whether the Japanese people become aware of this historical mission or not, does matter.
