To Tell the Truth: Why Did Putin Get So Angry with Japan. - IISIA 株式会社原田武夫国際戦略情報研究所 -
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To Tell the Truth: Why Did Putin Get So Angry with Japan.

Getting a call from my friend in NYC and holding a skype meeting with him so early in the morning, today has just begun in my life. According to instructions of Bhutanese royal house, he’s been working on a project in terms of Gross National Happiness (GNP), to which he kindly invited to me. I don’t know yet whether I can make any significant contributions to that, but anyway, I made up my mind to keep in touch with both the project and him. Hopefully, something notable will be generated in due course. When we’ll succeed to get Dubai involved in this project, the whole story will be then extremely serious. Let’s see.

Today’s morning, Japanese mass media proudly announced our PM Shinzo ABE “successfully” held a bilateral meeting with Russian President Putin in Sochi. Nevertheless, I never believe the meeting per se was “successful”, even though it was held for three and half hours including “tete-a-tete”.

To understand what really happened between them this time, a simple fact should be reminded at first: Putin was a member of military intelligence on the ground, so that his way of thinking is still determined by the world of intelligence. For example, he never meets someone significant in the sense of intelligence in official places in Tokio. Instead of that, he usually prefers meeting with those people in the Russian house of trade representative in Takanawa, which is located away from the chancery of the Russian embassy. If you really want to talk to him seriously, go to not Mamiana (embassy) but Takanawa (trade representative). It’s a common sense the genuine intelligence community shares here in Tokio. By saying that, I mean “Don’t believe the words Putin officially announces. Find out his true intension behind the door.”

Thanks to my elder colleagues in the world of intelligence, I’ve been informed that Putin had got extremely angry with Abe’s inconsiderate behavior in the world community. To boost his “ABENOMICS”, PM Abe has been paying a series of visits to foreign countries. This was not the case for his predecessors and is as such not so bad. It’s thoughtlessness that really matters. With provision of economic assistance to counties he visits, he violates economic interest of the Russian federation one by one. The tipping point was actually Abe’s previous visit to Ukraine, where he committed himself to make financial contributions to the country, which is currently hostile to Russia. Therefore, for Putin, reconciliation with Japan is “NEVRE EVER”, conditioned that the Japanese Imperial house, which donated to Putin’s political ambition at the very early stage, will make some more notable concessions for the sake of his nation.

As a counter proposal, the Russian side invites PM Abe to the forthcoming East Economic Forum to be held in September in Vladivostok. That sounds pretty good, however, the political reality will soon show you insoluble difficulties PM Abe will face sooner or later. Based on the second agreement he’ll soon reach with Obama in terms of Syria, Putin will lead military offensive with Iran, Syria and even Hizballah vis-à-vis Israel, while he will pretend as if he would target “Islamic State” in the Golan Height. If the offensive will be started by the forthcoming September, PM Abe will directly get involved in this turmoil, since he’s a “good friend” of Netanyahu, Israeli PM. If he’ll still stick to the typical Japanese style of “neutrality”, Putin will get pretty angry and urge him to “show the flag”. Of course, PM Abe can’t choose the Russian card, while so many Japanese companies, particularly big corporates depend on Israeli technological innovations. So, PM Abe won’t be able to get back our northern territories. That’s all.

Well, what we Japanese urgently need is quite simple: a group of strategists with background of genuine intelligence. Don’t believe anyone who proclaim themselves as professional of intelligence in the public. Because genuine intelligence never shows up, they are just either fake or useless. PM Abe’s failure on Russia obviously indicates such a necessity. Ask me before you’ll go to Vladivostok in September, dear PM. I’ll tell you what you shall immediately do for both of your own and the Japanese nation’s interest.