No More Shinzo Abe’s Noble Lie, Please. - IISIA 株式会社原田武夫国際戦略情報研究所 -
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No More Shinzo Abe’s Noble Lie, Please.

While some parts of the global community, particularly European countries, are still suffering from the on-going wide spread of COVID-19, Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, just gets an old but new headache in politics. The widow of a government official of Ministry of Finance abruptly released to the public what her husband, who had committed a suicide in the midst of controversy, had left in a handwritten farewell note. From objective viewpoint in terms of Japanese politics, this incident will soon lead Shinzo Abe to get a fatal wound in his career as Prime Minister of Japan.


To understand the story correctly, we have at first to get back to its origin. Akie Abe, the wife of Shinzo Abe and “(political) first lady” of Japan frequently visited the family of Kagoike in Osaka, Japan, who had been planning to build up a new and far conservative elementary school (“Moritomo-Gakuen elementary school). The point is Mr. and Mrs. Kagoike obviously asked Mrs. Akie Abe for political assistance so as to purchase a land for the elementary school with discount price from Ministry of Finance, since they aimed at a property estate as state-owned asset. As far as Japanese mass media reported so far, Mrs. Abe and her staff allegedly “informed” governmental officials in charge of Mr. and Mrs. Kagoike’s wish. And in fact, they succeeded to acquire the real estate and open their own private elementary school, where the pupils were educated with textbooks of far right-wing anachronism.

In the Japanese Diet, PM Shinzo Abe was harshly criticized by opposition parties that this must be an illegal political “pork barrel”, which he, of course, totally denied. A citizen group tried to persuade prosecutors to move against this misconduct directly connected with Mrs. Akie Abe, but indirectly related with PM Shinzo Abe and his political power, however, the Japanese prosecutor did not accept its request and just sealed the indictment. The case seems to be, at least so far, closed.

But now, the card just reverses. Thanks to the handwritten note of Mr. Toshio Akagi, who was forced to keep secret what he had seen, written and done for the sake of the “special request” from the Japanese political leader’s spouse, we all know what the Government of Japan publicly announced and explained jointly with Japanese prosecutors was fake and shall be regarded as a typical example of political “noble lie” in Japan. PM Shinzo Abe immediately released his statement in terms of this matter, but only expressed his deep remorse on the whole story and firmly rejected any kind of apology to the public by taking political responsibility for this matter.


Well, this is just an unprecedented but short story of Japanese politics we used to experience frequently. Nevertheless, while we focus on forecasting the very near future events in not only Japan but the entire world community, this is of extreme significance, I think. Why?

The global financial market keeps on being tumbled, and government of advanced and emerging economies announced series of “rescue programs” including “helicopter money” one after another. Simultaneously, oil price is being sharply falling down and this trend never stops, at least so far. Although almost every analyst of financial market shows interest only in tentative appreciation of USD, JPY has got extreme appreciation recently. This is rather remarkable and meaningful as well than the former.

The human history, of which trends of the global financial market is a part, is constituted by fractal phenomena and regulated by the (mathematical) “power law”. These things simply show events and incidents in the world appear one after another, which are not the same but quite similar to each other. To anticipate the future, this knowledge of “law of history” is so essential that we have to get back to the past and intensively learn what happened before thinking of the events ahead. Once conditions are met as we had in the past, almost same events are about to take place. This is the golden rule all the distinguished viewer of the very near future always keeps eyes on.

Having said that, I herewith underline what we are seeing in both Japan and the global community are quite fractual to the situations in late 1980s, especially the a few-years period from 1987, the year of “Black Monday” in stock markets. We just experienced “Black Days” in the financial market, while we see dramatic falling down of oil price due to Saudi Arabian political decision and unprecedented quantitative easing by central banks and financial authorities of major countries. Almost the same events and incidents happened from October, 1987 in Japan and the whole world, while the then Japanese PM Yasuhiro Nakasone was forced resign after his right-wing administration for 5 years.


A wise man in the Chinese traditional leadership once told me that Japan can survive despite all the turmoil of the human history, conditioned that she is not led a “powerful” political leader with his original way of thinking but without any appropriate sense to established laws of both the human civilization and universe. In this regard, I firmly believe it’s the highest time for PM Shinzo Abe of Japan to announce his resignation without any prior notice to others. From viewpoint of the above mentioned “law of history”, only the Japanese financial market will suddenly get started with its second version of bubble economy, as soon as its last condition, “resignation of Shinzo Abe”, will be met as we experienced from late autumn of 1987. As far as the latent image is concerned, almost all the requirements for Japan’s bubble economy are satisfied, and in this context, we can already say the bubble economy of Japan has even already begun at least in the latent (high dimensional) world. If Shinzo Abe and his wife still want to save their family dignity, they are highly recommended to follow this “law of history” and give up his highest political power as soon as the critical date of the latent world,  22 March, 2020 comes. Anyway, no more “noble lie”, please, Mr. Prime Minister. Instead, let the human history go forward as it should do. Stay tuned.