The Year of Cryptocurrency Has Just Begun. - IISIA 株式会社原田武夫国際戦略情報研究所 -
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The Year of Cryptocurrency Has Just Begun.

While I enjoyed refreshing myself both physically and mentally in a seaside retreat in Kahala, Hawaii, till the New Year, a new trend abruptly broke out in the global market. “Bitcoin”, the leading cryptocurrency, rocketed, and its price reached even more than 150,000 JPY per piece, which is much more than the historical record of 128,000 JPY. No one can deny any more a new era has just begun in the market.

“Seeing is believing”: In the last April, my institute officially announced the following recommendation to its closest clients in a discreet manner. “Think about including one of the emerging cryptocurrencies in your asset portfolio. Don’t hesitate to invest to Bitcoin, whereas you can’t understand what “block chain” actually means.” Some clients of mine immediately followed us, while the others did not do so by arguing, “Well, I know cryptocurrency can be used these days in the market, however, its technological advancement isn’t secured yet.” In the course of time, a trading house of cryptocurrencies in HK was broken and the enormous amount of Bitcoin was stolen by an unknown hacker. Those who had opposed to my recommendation became much more confident than ever of the vulnerability of cryptocurrencies.

And now, Bitcoin soared afterwards. By saying that, I don’t mean to say I’m right and these frightened clients are doomed to fail because of their incapability to accept something new and innovative. What I want to underline herewith is the importance for all of us to get to know the logic I followed to announce the above shown recommendation for Bitcoin.

Nothing around cryptocurrencies is clear: We don’t know who invented the brand new technology called “Block Chain”. Nobody knows who’s the guy, “Satoshi NAKAMOTO” that is supposed to be the inventor. In addition, we never know what backs cryptocurrencies, e. g., Bitcoin, except for the “belief”, or rather “rumor” that they are based on mutual confidence of those who make use of them.

Nevertheless, I myself found the following two phenomena extremely remarkable: First of all, a series of small but significant events were held in the City of London several years ago to support the geeks of cryptocurrencies. Secondly, the government of PRC released licenses to five companies to start their eCommerce business with cryptocurrencies in the last spring. As usual, I spontaneously combined these phenomena with each other to “think outside the box”. This way of analogical thinking always leads me to a new world where I can enjoy something new and innovative. It was also the case for this time. My tentative conclusion was “The City of London is about to back the cryptocurrencies, which the Chinese consumers will rush to use for unknown reasons. Based on such a sea change in the global market, the cryptocurrencies will be broadly accepted in the financial market.”

Again, “Seeing is believing”. As far as the Chinese mainland market is concerned, the local investors has been obviously seeking a technologically secured “safe haven” and finally found it. That’s exactly what we discussed so far: “Bitcoin”. The trend is irreversible, and the Bitcoin will begin to soar again before the Chinese “New Year”, I suspect. OK, the fact we could eventually understand and find out what’s the matter in the global market is more or less satisfying. However, consider the future world what will take place, when all of us think not conventional currencies printed on papers and backed by sovereign assets, but cryptocurrencies backed by “nothing” to be valuable?

The new era has just begun, which we have enormous difficulties to understand and catch up with. Don’t let yourself down and keep up with us. Stay tuned.