Next Target: Russia. What Shall Be Done? - IISIA 株式会社原田武夫国際戦略情報研究所 -
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Next Target: Russia. What Shall Be Done?

While Xi Jinping’s state visit obviously failed to be realized at this juncture, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s diplomacy aims at another goal right now: Russia. Mass media don’t pay both sufficient and appropriate attention to Abe’s visit to Moscow in May so far, as far as I’ve been informed. Nevertheless, this visit will be the decisive milestone for not only Japanese and Russian diplomacy but also crisis management of the entire global community including fight against pandemic. Do you know why?

Abe’s administration proudly announces that “the personal friendship between Shinzo and Vladimir” is already firm enough to get a breakthrough in terms of Kuril islands issue, the issue of Achilless’ tendon of bilateral relationship between Tokyo and Moscow. But the Russian side isn’t convinced of rapprochement with Japan and still doubts Tokyo’s real intention vis-à-vis Moscow. In this regard, I have a written evidence, which I don’t disclose to the public right now (maybe later, through this official weblog. Stay tuned).
Nobody except for inner circle of political mystics in both nations seems to understand dramatic turbulence in PRC such as the on-going one caused by COVID-19, will be sooner or later closely related to this territorial issue. How about you?? To understand Putin’s way of thinking, just imagine the following future scenario in this context: At this stage, Russia succeeds to control the worldwide crisis due to COVID-19 by banning entrance of the Chinese into the border, while almost no Chinese citizens are seen in major cities in Russia such as St. Petersburg I recently visited. This is not the case for Japan: Due to failed crisis management, PM Shinzo Abe once announced to “welcome” Chinese citizens even after the outbreak of the pandemic this year. Before dramatic change of Abe’s policy against Chinese tentative “medical immigrants”, a huge number of such citizens have already come to Japan (particularly Hokkaido) as a better place than their hometown in PRC. Now, Abe’s administration finally makes series of decisions to suppress the number of COVID-19 patients in the domestic sphere, while he feels strongly pressed by the global management in the context of mismanagement regarding “Diamond Princess”. Having said that, Abe’s position towards Putin seems not to be best for the deal of Kuril Islands, while Japan’s status and power are apparently weakened in the midst of this turmoil of pandemic. Theoretically, Putin could take advantage of such a situation and force his “fake friend”, Shinzo, to accept “the glorious achievement of the former Soviet Union during WWII in Far East”.

From my viewpoint, the only way-out will be given to the poor PM of Japan, when another shock wave of pandemic after COVID-19 will appear very soon. Being combined with political upheavals in peripheries of PRC such as Hongkong, this second wave of pandemic, which will be much more powerful and uncontrollable than the current one, will lead the Chinese people to massively emigrate from PRC and get safe haven in the neighborhood, especially Japan and Russia. This kind of dramatic escalation due to the common reason will inevitably force the both nations to find a joint solution by making a (tentative) colony for the Chinese migrants in a place which they have been discussing so long time. As you might grasp right now, that’s the Kuril Islands.
Of course, reading such a future scenario of stupid imagination, you must be laughing, I believe. However, just take into account massive emigrant wave is now caused by the Turkish authority right now, which will make the whole Europeans get into an unprecedented social crisis. Why not also in Far East? And the game will be totally changed when the United Nations will be asked to lead the discussion on making such a (tentative) colony due to massive emigrant wave from PRC to Russia and Japan.
Even though he pretend to stick to only security issues, Putin actually expects Abe to show his sense of understanding such a “big picture” of the very near future, I suppose. Despite his public image of “strong political guy”, it’s Vladimir Putin that is of highly mystical character and confidentially supported by financing of the (western) global leadership from the very beginning of his political career in St. Petersburg and Moscow. From his own mystical information source, Putin seems to know what will take place in Russia and other parts of the world in the very near future. My impression is he’s just following what his mysitical master tells, while his political decision is thus somtimes extremely difficult for other to undersand. For the same reason, Putin and his satete “Russia” is well prepared for the on-going pandemic.

Japan’s diplomacy tries to make use of the issue of DPRK as one of the common backgrounds for rapproachement with Russia, which the Russians never regard so any more. Japan is urged to find out another common issue with Russia other than trivial propaganda of joint economic activities in the Kuril Islands. That’s the pandemic, even a new one ahead, I think. If Putin won’t be well prepared for this new one, Russia will immediately get into crisis and turmoil. That’ll be “the high time” for diplomacy of Japan vis-a-vis Russia, in terms of the Kuril Islands issue. Keep eyes on the future development of the Japan-Russian collaboration to this direction. Stay tuned.