Failed Nation, Failed Diplomacy. - IISIA 株式会社原田武夫国際戦略情報研究所 -
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Failed Nation, Failed Diplomacy.

Once again, DPRK just launched a ballistic missile to threaten not Japan as such but the Trump administration in the States. Once upon a time, even DPRK tended to argue she never launched a “missile” but just tested a rocket launch for scientific research. The time has dramatically changed recently and the North officially announces the “strategic success” of ballistic missile launch. Long-range ballistic missiles made by DPRK are said to be able to directly reach the US territory. When the event had happened 100 years ago, it were a sufficient reason for US to declare a “defense war” against Pyongyang. However, even D. Trump still hesitates to do so. Instead, the US President fired his closest political and military staffs and continues his lonely war of words against Kim Jong-un. The time has been passing.

The reason why D. Trump should declare a “war” in the Korean Peninsula and can’t do so yet is clear: In lack of sufficient official budget, the US administration can’t plan any war to win. For deployment of warships, submarines, fighters and bombers, and rapid mobilizations of all the US soldiers, D. Trump urgently needs enough budget which he unfortunately doesn’t have. Why? The American democracy doesn’t allow him to do so. His any attempts to break its tradition has failed so far. A series of his presidential executive orders were refused by US courts. Only the room left for D. Trump is twitter, where he’s just sued by some users for inappropriate tweets.

As far as I analyzed, the Trump administration invited his Chinese counterpart to jointly declare a “legitimate” war against DPRK to establish a new order in the Far East. However, the Xi administration is clever enough to understand it could be politically endangered if it would rely on D. Trump, who’s obviously not backed by the nation under the above-mentioned circumstances. This is exactly why PRC suddenly changed its friendly approach to D. Trump and de facto refuses to join his original plan to fight against Kim Jong-un.

The only way out for D. Trump is ironically to ask his enemy, Kim Jong-un, to take much harder measures against his citizens: Once all the three US citizens, who still remains captured in Kim Jong-un’s hands, will be sent back to the states in a coma like the US student, Otto Warmbier, D. Trump will be authorized by the US public opinion to declare a “defense war” unilaterally against DPRK. Mere ballistic missile launches to the EEZ of Japan, one of the closest US ally, can’t persuade the people on the street in the states to get rid of their love for peace. Someone must be sacrificed, after all the diplomatic means turn out to be both ineffective and useless.

To warp up, I would say, whether the leadership of budgetary failed nation led by D. Trump would succeed to militarily attack Pyongyang or not really matters. If D. Trump would do so, the conventional “nation state” system would manage to survive. In this case, any “legitimate” wars always follow diplomacy, which is done only for gaining a time to convince the public of joining the wars against enemies. In the modern nation state system, diplomacy is just a tool for either opening up a one-way to military attack or ending war, even though the diplomacy as such pretends as if it aims only at (re-)establishing peaceful order. The historical fact is nations states always need wars to rebalance supply and demand gaps, while their diplomacy is totally dependent on such a tendency of nations states. If D. Trump will fail to declare the Second Korean War as soon as possible, the US as a nation state will immediately turn out to be failed. The traditional diplomacy will also end there.

I’d say, only about 40 days are left for D. Trump’s final attempt to attack Pyongyang unilaterally. Other things being equal, September 8 of this year will be the next target date. Well, let’s see whether his possible failure to follow the conventional rules of nation state will eventually open the door to the next world order. Stay tuned.